Single-family building permits continue to slide in the suburbs and exurbs north of Dallas and Fort Worth, although there are exceptions. Year-to-date home-building permits are down 45% in Frisco, 27% in Celina and 21% in Prosper, with the spring building season well underway. In Frisco, 624 single-family permits were issued in January, February, March and April combined. That compares to 1,134 in the same period of 2021, according to data compiled by Addison-based Tomlin Investments, which tracks new home construction around Dallas-Fort Worth. So far this year, builders have pulled 732 permits in Celina and 378 permits in Prosper. That compares to 1,003 in Celina and 476 in Celina in the first four months of last year. Permits in Princeton plunged 48%, from 606 in the first four months of 2021 to 313 so far this year. Home permits in McKinney, Melissa and Little Elm are down, too, albeit by smaller amounts. McKinney permits dropped 9% to 597 in the first four months, Melissa is down 4% to 295 permits, and Little Elm is down 5% to 451.
It's a different story in the exurbs Van Alstyne, Sherman, Anna and Denton. Van Alstyne is up 146% year-to-date, with 251 permits so far. Sherman has soared 98% with 208 permits, Anna has escalated 29% with 516 permits, and Denton ticked up 9% to 381 permits to date.
April 2022 Nationwide
27% Decrease in Sales from April 2021
12% Increase in New Listings over April 2021
We are in a Changing Market
The red-hot housing market is starting to cool this spring, after nearly two years of soaring prices and shrinking inventories.
Why it matters: Homebuyers and renters who've been struggling to find an affordable place to live will have more choices and fewer bidding wars — if only just a little.
What's happening: The supply of homes for sale is finally increasing, after being depleted over the past year and a half, Zillow reports.
More houses for sale should help slow the frenetic pace of the U.S. market, in which the median home was snatched up in just six days in April.
New home construction has also bolstered the housing supply, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.
The big picture: The dynamics of the housing market are shifting in many ways, with rising mortgage rates becoming a factor for the first time in a while.
Between the lines: As inventories rise, prices soften. Redfin reports 15% of home sellers cut their asking price last month — up from 9% a year ago.
Be smart: The cooldown is not a sign of a housing crash — just an indication that we're going to return to a more balanced market, says Tucker of Zillow.
What to watch: Some overheated markets — like Charlotte, North Carolina, and Phoenix — could see a price correction over the coming year, Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi tells Fortune.
Dallas-Fort Worth saw the largest spike in home sales prices in the nation, according to a new study, with home prices up 39.5% over last year. The jump brought the current median home sales price in DFW to $362,782 in April, according to the latest Re/Max National Housing Report.
Todd Luong, a real estate agent with RE/MAX DFW Associates, called the increase "astonishing." Breaking it down in some of the popular suburbs north of DFW shows Frisco increased 36.6% over one year ago, McKinney rose 34.2%, and Little Elm climbed 33.9% over one year ago, Luong said. Luong said that population and job growth are pushing home prices higher across North Texas. "Corporate relocations have been the primary driver for all this," he said in an email. "During these past 10 years, office space in Dallas-Fort Worth has increased by over 55 million square feet, and only New York City has had more office space growth. "During the same 10 years, industrial space in Dallas-Fort Worth grew by 230 million square feet. All this growth means more jobs, and more jobs mean more people are moving here."
The high price growth affects longtime homeowners and current and recent home buyers and sellers, Luong noted. He said that appraisal districts have increased 2022 market values significantly across North Texas. On average, he said that home appraisals across Dallas County are up 25% compared to previous years. "I have never had so many people asking me for help with protesting their property taxes than this year," Luong said. "I hope there can be property tax relief for homeowners in the future. Otherwise, some people may not be able to afford to live in their current neighborhood anymore. I have clients who have already expressed this concern."
Home appraisals are up roughly 25% in Dallas County, 20% in Tarrant County, and more in Collin County and some of the other suburbs of Dallas-Fort Worth. The last day property owners can file to protest their appraisals is May 16, and protests are expected to surge.
After a year of unprecedented price appreciation — with multiple offers the norm and houses selling far over the asking price along with inventory shortages that caused many buyers to waive appraisal contingencies in purchase contracts — the market values that appraisal districts placed on properties for 2022 tax purposes are up sharply across the state. How sharply varies widely from county to county and even neighborhood to neighborhood.
The average increase in home appraisals across Texas is 25%, according to the Texas Association of Appraisal Districts. Home appraisals are up roughly 25% in Dallas County, 20% in Tarrant County, and more than 50% down in Travis County, where the housing market is even hotter than it is in North Texas.
Homeowners can apply for a homestead exemption to limit the increase, but the deadline to apply for this year was April 30. The good news for homeowners who missed the April 30 deadline is that late homestead exemption applications can be filed for up to two years after the tax delinquency date, which is usually Feb. 1. Homeowners who file late are eligible for a new tax bill with a lower amount or a refund if they've already paid. The next important property tax deadline is fast approaching. The last day property owners can file to protest their appraisals is Monday (May 16).
The higher appraised values mean that if taxing entities such as cities, counties and especially school districts do not cut tax rates, many property owners will pay hundreds of dollars more in property taxes for 2022, if not thousands. For people who own their home, that means writing a bigger check to their local tax office by the end of the year. For folks with a mortgage, the amount their lender collects in escrow will climb, typically translating into higher monthly house payments.
The number grabbing the attention of property owners when they open their 2022 appraisal envelopes is the market value — the amount the county appraisal district estimates their house would sell for as of January 1 of this year. But in many cases, property owners won't pay taxes on the full market value because they'll qualify for tax breaks such as the homestead, over-65, and disabled veterans exemptions. The homestead exemption, for example, puts a 10% cap on the amount the assessed value of a primary residence can go up. A homeowner claiming a homestead exemption whose market value increases from $500,000 to $600,00 would pay property taxes on $550,000.
Meanwhile, Texans who voted on Saturday overwhelmingly approved two amendments to the state constitution concerning property tax relief. One will set a lower property tax rate for over-65 and disabled homeowners starting in 2023. The second will lower independent school district property tax bills by increasing the homestead exemption from $25,000 currently to $40,000, saving an estimated $175 per homestead. In Dallas County, Proposition 1 passed by 87.2% and Prop 2 passed by 85.4%, both mirroring the statewide passage rate, give or take 1%.
Home-buying clients and other residential property owners are urged to protest their appraisals most years and says this year there's more reason than ever. Most appraisal districts have online portals that give property owners a way to protest informally. Those who aren't satisfied with the results can then formally protest with their local Appraisal Review Board, which will hold a hearing. Protest hearings began in late April 30 and finish in mid-July. Homeowners should arm themselves with documentation of recent sales of comparable homes in their neighborhood. Most real estate agents will pull the comps for free.
The process to protest appraisal hikes varies from county to county and has changed substantially from past years due to COVID. For more information about how individual North Texas counties are handling protests given COVID restrictions, here's how to contact appraisal districts in North Texas:
Recent housing-market data has shown the massive effect the surge in rates has had on home buyers. "The pandemic boom in home sales is over, and activity is back at pre-pandemic levels," Mizuho Securities U.S. economist Alex Pelle and chief U.S. economist Steven Ricchiuto wrote in a research note. It's clear that the affordability challenges posed by rising rates and higher prices has cooled demand among home buyers. Nevertheless, home listings remain few and far between. That means that home prices likely will continue to grow — albeit at a slower pace — since even with a reduced pool of buyers there aren't enough properties to grow around, analysts say.
Most economists anticipate that the housing market is balancing out, meaning that bidding wars and contingencies could soon become a thing of the past.
Quickly rising mortgage rates, high home prices and a persistent inventory shortage aren't enough to sideline Dallas-Fort Worth house shoppers, judging by new data on the number of showings per listing. DFW remains solidly in double-digit territory and among the nation's leaders in the number of showings per home, according to an index by Showing Time, a home touring technology and data firm. The ratio of showings to listings of DFW homes in March was 16.1. That's the same as it was in March 2021 and down an almost most meaningless 2% from February. DFW's showings ratio is well above the U.S rate of 9.3 showings per home. Nationwide, the number of markets seeing double-digit showings per listing jumped 46% in the past two months as buyer demand continues to outpace slightly rising inventory, according to the Showing Index. In hard numbers, that's 83 markets with double-digit showings in January of this year, 109 in February and 121 markets in March of this year. The ShowingTime Showing Index is compiled using data from more than 6 million home showings scheduled across the country each month on listings using ShowingTime products and services. It tracks the average number of appointments received on active listings during the month.